Happy Thanksgiving, friends!
As we reflect on the year, I want to take a moment to express my gratitude for all of you—clients, colleagues, and friends. It’s been a privilege to help you with your real estate needs and to be part of this amazing community.
I wish you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving filled with love, joy, and relaxation.
We’ve had low temperatures, snowmaking has been in full swing, and with some storms forecasted for this weekend, ski areas are opening soon! Mt. Rose is already open, Northstar opens tomorrow, and Palisades opens today. Let the snow-filled fun begin!
The market is showing some signs of improvement. While inventory is moving slower, prices seem to be holding steady. Here’s the breakdown: while we’re seeing a lot of price reductions from list prices, final sale prices are relatively flat compared to the first and second quarters of this year. This suggests that there’s no big real estate crash coming in the Tahoe market. As I’ve mentioned before, most sellers don’t have to sell—they either paid cash or locked in low interest rates. They’d prefer to keep their properties for personal use or rent them out until the market picks back up.
A Few Market Observations:
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Drop in new inventory: We’ve gone from seeing 30-40 new listings a week in October to fewer than 10 a week in November.
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Shrinking inventory: The total number of properties for sale in our region is declining. Tahoe Donner, for example, went from 74 homes for sale at the end of September to just 34 now. This drop is due to some sellers pulling their listings for the winter, along with a slight uptick in new transactions.
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Slight surge in new transactions: Since November 1st, 71 properties have gone under contract in our Tahoe Sierra MLS (North Lake Tahoe and Truckee), indicating continued interest in owning a vacation property in Tahoe.
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Trend of lowball offers: We’ve started to see a wave of lowball offers. For instance, two days after the election, we received three offers on three different listings, all well below asking price. In each case, the sellers rejected them—confirming that there’s still resistance to significant price drops. Other agents have shared similar stories, which tells me that while buyers are testing the waters, most sellers aren’t willing to make drastic price cuts. This is a strong indicator that our market is not heading for a crash.
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New sales activity in sleeper communities: Some neighborhoods that have been quiet for months are seeing a nice bump in new transactions. For example, Lahontan, which has seen only seven homes sold this year, just had three homes go under contract in the last two weeks.
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Post-election activity: We saw a brief uptick in showings and offers right after the election, but things have cooled down again this week. Much of this is weather-related, and it’s also typical for November and December to slow down as buyers often opt to rent for the season instead of purchasing.
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A quieter period ahead: As we approach the holidays, expect a quieter market. Buyers tend to get caught up in holiday travel, parties, and family time. This presents a unique window for buyers to take advantage of less competition and potentially better negotiation power. Once the holiday crowds return and the ski season fully kicks into gear, we anticipate buyer activity to pick up once again.
Looking ahead, local agents and our colleagues in our feeder markets in the Bay Area are optimistic that buyers will get off the fence in Q1. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out, and I’ll be here to keep you updated as we move into the new year! Please don't hesitate to contact me anytime to talk about the market and your real estate goals.
Thank you for your continued trust and support. Wishing you all the best this holiday season!
Cheers,
Breck & The Overall & Hamilton Group